An investment research boutique, Fundstrat, has predicted that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could surge past $150,000 by the end of 2024 if there is approval for several United States spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Fundstrat’s managing partner and head of research, Tom Lee, said in an interview that the approval of these ETFs would create a shift in Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics, resulting in significant price appreciation. He further clarified that this prediction would only hold if the ETFs were approved in the United States, as there are already spot Bitcoin ETFs available in Europe.

According to Bloomberg, the United States currently accounts for 97.7% of the global trading volume for crypto-related ETFs. If spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved, this figure could potentially increase to 99.5%. Even if the spot ETF applications are rejected, Lee still anticipates a price push from Bitcoin’s next halving event, which is expected to occur in April 2024. However, he noted that the price would not reach six figures at that point.

In June, major Wall Street firms such as Fidelity, Invesco, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie joined BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, in applying for a Bitcoin spot ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The final decisions on these applications may not be reached until sometime in 2024, as the SEC has up to 240 days to make their determinations.

The outcome of Grayscale’s appeal to convert its GBTC trust product into a Bitcoin spot ETF is expected to be announced sooner rather than later. Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have estimated a 65% chance of these Bitcoin spot ETFs being approved by the SEC.

FAQs

What is a spot Bitcoin ETF?

A spot Bitcoin ETF is an exchange-traded fund that directly holds and tracks the price of Bitcoin in a physical form.

Why are spot Bitcoin ETFs significant?

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are significant because they provide a regulated and accessible way for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly owning and storing the cryptocurrency. This approval could lead to increased institutional adoption of Bitcoin.

What is Bitcoin halving?

Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years, where the reward for Bitcoin miners is reduced by half. This event reduces the new supply of Bitcoin entering the market and has historically been associated with price increases.

What impact could Bitcoin spot ETF approval have on the market?

If Bitcoin spot ETFs are approved, it could lead to increased demand for Bitcoin, as institutional investors may be more willing to invest in the cryptocurrency through regulated and traditional investment vehicles. This increased demand could potentially drive the price of Bitcoin higher.

Summary

Analysts at Fundstrat predict that the price of Bitcoin could surpass $150,000 by the end of 2024 if spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are approved in the United States. The approval of these ETFs would shift Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics, resulting in significant price appreciation. Furthermore, even if the spot ETF applications are rejected, the next Bitcoin halving event expected in April 2024 could still drive the price higher. The final decisions on the spot ETF applications from major Wall Street firms, such as Fidelity and BlackRock, may not be reached until 2024.